KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Xiaomi 44.1%Leader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Xiaomi 44.1%Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5K
Open interest
$6.1K
Medium open interestSpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 5:30 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Top Chinese AI Company week of October 5th
KalshiTop Chinese AI Company week of September 28th
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketBest Chinese AI Company end of December?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of December?
PolymarketThird-Best Chinese AI Company end of December?
PolymarketRules
If Xiaomi is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- Qualifying Chinese AI companies are defined as a company whose global or primary operational headquarters is located in mainland China. Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Xiaomi
- If Xiaomi is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Alibaba
- If Alibaba is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Moonshot
- If Moonshot is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Z.ai
- If Z.ai is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Baidu
- If Baidu is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- DeepSeek
- If DeepSeek is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- MiniMax
- If MiniMax is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- ByteDance
- If ByteDance is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tencent
- If Tencent is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.