KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Alibaba 74.8%Leader of 10 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.1K
Liquidity
$4.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Sep 21, 26, 2:01 PM UTCOct 5, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Top Chinese AI Company this month
KalshiTop Chinese AI Company week of September 21st
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketThird-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketWill 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 200.00 USDC Base by September 28th 11:59 pm UTC
Manifold MarketsRules
If Moonshot is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Oct 5, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- Qualifying Chinese AI companies are defined as a company whose global or primary operational headquarters is located in mainland China.
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- September 30+0.1pt100%
- October 31-0.1pt100%
- September 24+0.1pt100%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
- 24h Vol
- $317.9K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No-0.4pt96%
- Yes+0.4pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.8M
- 24h Vol
- $91K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No+0.1pt96%
- Yes-0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $42.6M
- 24h Vol
- $83.8K
POLYMARKETTaipei Mayor Election Winner
- Chiang Wan-an-3.5pt80%
- Puma Shen+2.5pt20%
- Kuo Hsi0%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-2.5pt89.1%
- Moonshot-0.3pt5.9%
- Xiaomi+1.6pt2%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTrump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of Xi summit?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $19.4K
- 24h Vol
- $16.9K
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 23?
- Who will attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Worlds 2026 Winning Region
- VALORANT Champions 2026: Winner
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Top Chinese AI Company week of September 28th?
- Kalshi prices Alibaba at 74.8% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Top Chinese AI Company week of September 28th resolve?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 28th is scheduled to resolve on October 5, 2026.
- How is Top Chinese AI Company week of September 28th settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Moonshot is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Oct 5, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.