Current implied probability
4.3-4.6% 44.1%Leader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$12.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 17, 26, 12:17 AM UTCOct 20, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
- Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market.
- Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt53%
- No change-4.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $376.2K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $607.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $710.8K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $12.2K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No96%
- Yes-1.0pt4%
- Total Vol
- $3.4M
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
- Unemployment in September
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026??
- Polymarket prices 4.3-4.6% at 44% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026? resolve?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 20, 2026.
- How is China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.