This market resolved: 4.3-4.6%
Resolved: Oct 19, 2026, 6:23 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
4.3-4.6%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
73%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 20, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
4.3-4.6%98%
4.3-4.6%Won
3.4-3.7%Lost
3.7-4.0%Lost
4.0-4.3%Lost
4.6-4.9%Lost
4.9-5.2%Lost
5.2-5.5%Lost
5.5%+Lost
<3.4%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
China GDP growth is below 6% on average from beginning of 2022 to end of 2027.
Manifold MarketsUS real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
KalshiJapan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
PolymarketUK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
PolymarketUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
PolymarketSouth Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
- Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market.
- Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.