KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above -100,000 85%Leader of 5 outcomes
Above -100,000 85%Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$66.1
Open interest
$66.1
Low open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Oct 2, 26, 12:00 AM UTCNov 6, 26, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Jobs numbers in October 2026?
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExHow many jobs added in October?
PolymarketJobs numbers in Nov 2026?
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 5% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.6% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExRules
If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above -100,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The underlying is the combined revision to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes in total nonfarm payroll employment for the two months immediately preceding October 2026, relative to their estimates in the immediately preceding Employment Situation release. The two revisions will be added together, with upward revisions positive and downward revisions negative. Resolution will use the combined revision stated in the initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026; if no combined figure is stated, the two individual revisions will be summed. Any benchmark or seasonal-adjustment effects incorporated into those two monthly revisions are included. Separate annual benchmark figures and revisions to other months are excluded. Subsequent revisions will not affect the outcome.
Rules for each outcome
- Above -100,000
- If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above -100,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -50,000
- If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above -50,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0
- If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above 0, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 50,000
- If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above 50,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 100,000
- If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above 100,000, then the market resolves to Yes.