PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability0-1% 56%-4.0%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.4K
Liquidity
$21.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
38.1% / 40.0%
Spread
5.0%
Moderate spread7d Change
+13.2%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jan 22, 26, 3:28 PMFeb 12, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
0-1%56%
Volume trend
$4.4kJul 225d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
$12KAbove 3.4%: 31%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Recession this year?
$3.7KYes: 10%KALSHI
KALSHI
2026: Trump's dream year?
$2KYes: 5%KALSHI
KALSHI
US economic state at the end of 2026?
$1.9KSoft Landing: 60%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US recession by end of 2026?
$532.1Yes: 12%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
$450Yes: 16.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Rules
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
- The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026.
- The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
- If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year.