KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Exactly 4.2% 20%Leader of 23 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.1K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Dec 15, 25, 3:00 PM UTCNov 6, 26, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
KalshiUnemployment rate in Nov 2026?
KalshiFed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
KalshiSeptember Unemployment Rate
PolymarketUnemployment rate for new college grads increases in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich EU country will have the highest unemployment rate?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.3% in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.4% in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.5% in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.6% in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.7% in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.8% in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $663.1K
- 24h Vol
- $55.3K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $418.1K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.1K
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-4.0pt93%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-10.0pt84%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Total Vol
- $366.1K
- 24h Vol
- $11K
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Unemployment rate in Oct 2026??
- Kalshi prices Exactly 4.2% at 20% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Unemployment rate in Oct 2026? resolve?
- Unemployment rate in Oct 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 6, 2026.
- How is Unemployment rate in Oct 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.3% in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Unemployment rate in Oct 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.