KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Exactly 4.2% 77%Leader of 23 outcomes
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Dec 15, 25, 3:00 PM UTCDec 4, 26, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.3% in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.4% in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.5% in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.6% in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.7% in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.8% in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $663.1K
- 24h Vol
- $55.3K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $418.1K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.1K
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-4.0pt93%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-10.0pt84%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Total Vol
- $366.1K
- 24h Vol
- $11K
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Unemployment rate in Nov 2026??
- Kalshi prices Exactly 4.2% at 77% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Unemployment rate in Nov 2026? resolve?
- Unemployment rate in Nov 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 4, 2026.
- How is Unemployment rate in Nov 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.3% in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Unemployment rate in Nov 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.