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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Economy
  3. Recession in 2027?
Recession in 2027?

Recession in 2027?

5.0% (24h)EconomyOne-Off1y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 46%+5.0%
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0.4

Liquidity

$229.3

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

44.0% / 50.0%

Spread

13.6%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Apr 24, 26, 7:15 PMJan 31, 28, 1:25 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes46%

Rules

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.
  • GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter.
  • The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.
  • The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,626.53+2.28%EthereumETH$1,648.82+1.45%SolanaSOL$65.11+1.52%

Related Markets

Recession this year?

Recession this year?

$77.6
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US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

$3.7K
Yes: 20%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

$915
5.0%: 17%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

$300
Yes: 27.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
June Unemployment Rate

June Unemployment Rate

$155.3
4.2%: 31%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US real GDP growth in 2030?

US real GDP growth in 2030?

$154.8
2.6% to 3.0%: 11%KalshiKALSHI

Active in these topics

DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.65%XRPXRP$1.12+0.15%BNBBNB$594.97+1.59%CardanoADA$0.1658+2.83%HyperliquidHYPE$54.84-0.92%LitecoinLTC$42.68+0.59%

Rules

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.
  • GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter.
  • The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.
  • The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.