KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 40%
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$104.2
Liquidity
$36.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
37.0% / 39.0%
Spread
5.4%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Apr 24, 26, 7:15 PMJan 31, 28, 1:25 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes40%
Volume trend
$104Jul 225d of dataJul 26
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Rules
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.
- GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter.
- The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.