Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78.7%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMar 30, 25, 6:54 PM UTCMar 31, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
Manifold MarketsRecession in 2027?
KalshiWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExWill the Eurozone enter a recession before the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExWill the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030?
Manifold MarketsThe US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026.
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2026 and end of 2027.
- Otherwise NO.
- Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate.
- See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
- In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.
