KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 95%
Market quality
76 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$455.6
Liquidity
$176K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.7% / 5.2%
Spread
1.5 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Dec 17, 25, 3:00 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US government budget balance in 2026
KalshiGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
KalshiChina’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiWill an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?
Manifold MarketsAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If **ALL** of the following occur:
Settles via:VoteHubU.S. House of RepresentativesU.S. SenateBureau of Economic AnalysisBureau of Labor StatisticsBureau of Labor Statistics
- Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND 2.
- Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND 3.
- U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND 4.
- The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026
- then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $663.1K
- 24h Vol
- $55.3K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $418.1K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.1K
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-4.0pt93%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-10.0pt84%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Total Vol
- $366.1K
- 24h Vol
- $11K
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2026: Trump's dream year??
- Kalshi prices No at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does 2026: Trump's dream year? resolve?
- 2026: Trump's dream year? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is 2026: Trump's dream year? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If **ALL** of the following occur:
- Where else is 2026: Trump's dream year? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.