KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 92%
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$510.9
Liquidity
$93.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.2% / 6.1%
Spread
1.9 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Dec 17, 25, 3:00 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWill there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?
Manifold MarketsJapan recession in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:VoteHubU.S. House of RepresentativesBureau of Economic AnalysisBureau of Labor StatisticsBureau of Labor Statistics
- This is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
- If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:
- - "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL - "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT
- For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2026: Trump's bad year??
- Kalshi prices No at 92% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does 2026: Trump's bad year? resolve?
- 2026: Trump's bad year? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is 2026: Trump's bad year? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.