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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Economy
  3. 2026: Trump's bad year?
2026: Trump's bad year?

2026: Trump's bad year?

1.0% (24h)EconomyOne-OffUS Politics1y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 14%-1.0%
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$10.2

Liquidity

$741.6

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

14.0% / 17.0%

Spread

21.4%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Dec 17, 25, 3:00 PMDec 31, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes14%

Rules

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
  • If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
  • Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:
  • - "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL - "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT
  • For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,638.15+2.21%EthereumETH$1,649.96+1.51%SolanaSOL$65.11+1.46%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.50%XRPXRP$1.12+0.13%BNBBNB$595.17+1.48%

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Rules

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
  • If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
  • Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:
  • - "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL - "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT
  • For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).