KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 76%
Market quality
54 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$394
Liquidity
$11.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
16.5% / 24.0%
Spread
7.5 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jun 5, 25, 6:00 PM UTCJun 30, 29, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Kalshi2026: Trump's dream year?
KalshiUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketJapan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
PolymarketRules
If the value added by Manufacturing to GDP in Q4 2028 is at least 13.1% (the value it was in Q1 2005), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:BEA
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt79.2%
- No change-1.0pt19.8%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $148.9M
- 24h Vol
- $7.8M
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No93%
- Yes+3.0pt7%
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $21.2K
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+11.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%97%
- Above 3.3%96%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.7K
- 24h Vol
- $7.2K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above 0.2%+18.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%98%
- Above -0.2%97%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $98.2K
- 24h Vol
- $5K
KALSHI2026: Trump's dream year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.1pt5%
- Total Vol
- $576.9K
- 24h Vol
- $4.8K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes23%
- Total Vol
- $406.8K
- 24h Vol
- $4K
- US recession by end of 2026?
- Recession this year?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Unemployment in September
- US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- UK Recession in 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump bring back manufacturing??
- Kalshi prices No at 76% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does Will Trump bring back manufacturing? resolve?
- Will Trump bring back manufacturing? is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2029.
- How is Will Trump bring back manufacturing? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the value added by Manufacturing to GDP in Q4 2028 is at least 13.1% (the value it was in Q1 2005), then the market resolves to Yes.