KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 4.5% 16%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$92.2
Liquidity
$282.1K
High liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jan 5, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 8, 27, 1:25 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.8%, the market resolves to Yes.
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 5%, the market resolves to Yes.
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 5.5%, the market resolves to Yes.
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 6%, the market resolves to Yes.
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 6.5%, the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $663.1K
- 24h Vol
- $55.3K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $418.1K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.1K
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-4.0pt93%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-10.0pt84%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Total Vol
- $366.1K
- 24h Vol
- $11K
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How high will unemployment get in 2026??
- Kalshi prices Above 4.5% at 16% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does How high will unemployment get in 2026? resolve?
- How high will unemployment get in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 8, 2027.
- How is How high will unemployment get in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%, the market resolves to Yes.