KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Above 4.5% · —
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Stored price
Above 4.5% 12.5%Market line of 14 lines
Above 4.5% 12.5%Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1K
Open interest
$319.7K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Above 4.5%Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 22, 26, 7:30 PM UTCJan 8, 27, 1:25 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · Above 4.5%
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rules for each outcome
- Above 4.5%
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 17%
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 17%, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.8%
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.8%, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5%
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 5%, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 8%
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 8%, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 9%
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 9%, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.5%
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 5.5%, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 10%
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 10%, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 15%
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 15%, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 6%
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 6%, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 6.5%
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 6.5%, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 7%
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 7%, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 12%
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 12%, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 20%
- If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 20%, the market resolves to Yes.