KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k · —
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Stored price
U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k 16%Leader of 12 outcomes
U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k 16%Market quality
50 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$19.1K
Open interest
$1.3K
Low open interestBid / Ask
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U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99kSpread
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Market data
Updated 32 minutes ago
Oct 2, 26, 6:30 PM UTCNov 6, 26, 1:29 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US be at full employment in December 2026?
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ForecastExWill November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada's Unemployment Rate exceed 6.2% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Labor market) (Employment) (Layoffs)?
ForecastExWill Canada's Unemployment Rate exceed 6.2% in November 2026? (Jobless) (Labor market) (Employment) (Layoffs)?
ForecastExRules
If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- For all outcomes in this market, U3 refers to the single-decimal seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3), and NFP growth refers to the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment, as reported in thousands of jobs by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: U3 uses ECONSTAT and NFP growth uses PAYROLLS. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
Rules for each outcome
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k
- If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k
- If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above
- If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above
- If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 50-99k
- If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 50-99k, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k
- If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 100k or above
- If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 100k or above, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k
- If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 50k
- If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 50k, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: Below 50k
- If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: Below 50k, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 100k or above
- If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 100k or above, then the market resolves to Yes.
- U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 50-99k
- If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 50-99k, then the market resolves to Yes.
