Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
4.0–5.0% 89%+0.5ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$46.2
Liquidity
$88.6K
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
17
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 21, 26, 11:23 PMJan 31, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
- The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”.
- The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
- If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026.
Open markets
Economy
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes-1.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $451K
- 24h Vol
- $66K
KALSHIUnemployment in August
- Above 3.8%99%
- Above 3.7%98%
- Above 3.9%+1.0pt96%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $421.7K
- 24h Vol
- $55.2K
KALSHIJobs numbers in Aug 2026?
- Above -100,00095%
- Above -75,000+2.0pt95%
- Above -50,000+1.0pt90%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $134.2K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $358.9K
- 24h Vol
- $20.2K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No68%
- Yes+2.0pt32%
- Total Vol
- $273K
- 24h Vol
- $4.9K
POLYMARKETAugust Unemployment Rate
- 4.1%32.1%
- 4.2%+1.0pt32.1%
- 4.0%+5.5pt17.9%
+6 more outcomes
- ISM Services PMI - August 2026
- CPI in August
- Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?
- How many jobs added in August?
- Recession this year?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- Recession this year?
- South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026
- Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- GDP growth in 2026
- US economic state at the end of 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for China Annual GDP Growth 2026?
- Polymarket prices 4.0–5.0% at 89% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does China Annual GDP Growth 2026 resolve?
- China Annual GDP Growth 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2027.
- How is China Annual GDP Growth 2026 settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.