KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Soft landing 57.8%+0.1ptLeader of 4 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$49.4K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Feb 25, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 13, 27, 1:25 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q3 2026?
ForecastExChina overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?
KalshiWill the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2035?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — US economic state at the end of 2026? · Soft Landing 48%
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $662.8K
- 24h Vol
- $55.1K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.9K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $21.3K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for State of the economy at the end of 2026?
- Kalshi prices Soft landing at 58% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does State of the economy at the end of 2026 resolve?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 13, 2027.
- How is State of the economy at the end of 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is State of the economy at the end of 2026 listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.