Current implied probability
Soft landing 62%+2.3%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$23.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
57.0% / 64.9%
Spread
13.9%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Feb 25, 26, 3:00 PMJan 13, 27, 1:25 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Soft landing62%
Compare venues· Soft landing
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall93% match · verified | High | 62% | 0pt | $1.8K | $13.1K | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | Medium | 62% | 0pt | $1.1K | $23.9K | 19 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
US economic state at the end of 2026?
3.5%6mo
+3.5%62%
24%
+0.5%14%
+1 more outcomes
79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$55.2K
24h Vol$1.8K
POLYMARKETRules
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.1kJul 323d of dataJul 26
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MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
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If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.