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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Inflation
  3. State of the economy at the end of 2026
State of the economy at the end of 2026

State of the economy at the end of 2026

3.6% (24h)InflationOne-OffEconomy7mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Stagflation
Stagflation 32%-3.6%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$10

Liquidity

$164.7

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

22.7% / 31.5%

Spread

38.8%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Feb 25, 26, 3:00 PMJan 13, 27, 1:25 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Stagflation32%

Rules

If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
  • If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Inflation in June 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in June 2026 (CPI YoY)

$60.8
Above 4.0%: 45%KalshiKALSHI
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

$49.6
Above 4.0%: 50%KalshiKALSHI
Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

$8.7
Above 4.0%: 79%KalshiKALSHI
US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$3.4
Overheating: 47%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
How high will inflation get in 2026?

How high will inflation get in 2026?

$29.9K
Above 4%: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
June Inflation US - Annual

June Inflation US - Annual

$767.3
4.1%: 23%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,184.65+0.63%EthereumETH$1,641.35+0.02%SolanaSOL$64.31-1.30%DogecoinDOGE$0.084-0.89%XRPXRP$1.11-2.16%BNBBNB$592.54-0.01%

Related News

BlackRock warns of energy shock as May CPI is set to show acceleration in inflationCoindeskStrategy's bitcoin purchase fails to stir BTC priceCoindeskBitcoin price stalls near $64K before key U.S. inflation dataCrypto NewsBitcoin braces for inflation shock as CPI puts bulls on edgeCrypto NewsBlame bitcoin's tumble on rising inflation, not Strategy, 10xResearch arguesCoindeskU.S. inflation, European Central Bank rate decision: Crypto Week AheadCoindesk

Rules

If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
  • If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.