KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Overheating · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
Overheating 70.3%Leader of 4 outcomes
Overheating 70.3%Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Open interest
$57.6K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
OverheatingSpread
—
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Feb 25, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 13, 27, 1:25 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · Overheating
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.2% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in November 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027?
Manifold MarketsChina overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?
KalshiRules
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
Rules for each outcome
- Overheating
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Soft landing
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Stagflation
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Slack / disinflation
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — US economic state at the end of 2026? · Overheating 72%
