Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027?
InflationOne-OffMacro & EconomyEconomy3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98.5%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 7, 23, 7:13 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsState of the economy at the end of 2026
KalshiWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExRules
Economic growth is measured by the increase in a country's production of goods and services over a period.
- When taken at a global scale, this is known as the Gross World Product (GWP).
- Historically, GWP growth has been relatively steady, with notable fluctuations due to global events.
- The question posed is whether there will be a substantial, unprecedented growth in GWP – specifically, if GWP during any prior to 2027 will exceed 130% of the highest GWP recorded in any previous year.
- Before 2027, will the Gross World Product (GWP) for any single year exceed 130% of the maximum GWP recorded for any year prior to that?
- Resolution Criteria:
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $662.8K
- 24h Vol
- $55.1K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.9K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $21.3K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027? resolve?
- Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Economic growth is measured by the increase in a country's production of goods and services over a period.