PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
4.5% 100%+11.2%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$8.4
Liquidity
$21.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
2.7% / 4.7%
Spread
74.1%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Nov 12, 25, 10:49 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
4.8%37%
Volume trend
$8Jul 225d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).