Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2043?
InflationOne-OffMacro & Economy16yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 58%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 7, 23, 10:23 PM UTCJan 2, 43, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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Manifold MarketsState of the economy at the end of 2026
KalshiPPI YoY in August
KalshiHow high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
KalshiRules
Economic growth is measured by the increase in a country's production of goods and services over a period.
- When taken at a global scale, this is known as the Gross World Product (GWP).
- Historically, GWP growth has been relatively steady, with notable fluctuations due to global events.
- The question posed is whether there will be a substantial, unprecedented growth in GWP – specifically, if GWP during any prior to 2043 will exceed 130% of the highest GWP recorded in any previous year.
- Before 2043, will the Gross World Product (GWP) for any single year exceed 130% of the maximum GWP recorded for any year prior to that?
- Resolution Criteria:
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629K
- 24h Vol
- $35.7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,000-1.0pt44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $90.3K
- 24h Vol
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2043??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2043? resolve?
- Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2043? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2043.
- How is Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2043? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Economic growth is measured by the increase in a country's production of goods and services over a period.