Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)??

ForecastEx prices Yes at 85% as of October 8, 2026.

When does Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)? resolve?

Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)? is scheduled to resolve on November 6, 2026.

How is Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)? settled?

ForecastEx settles this market as follows: US Unemployment Rate October 2026.

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KALSHI

CPI in September

• Above -0.4%99%
• Above 0.1%99%
• Above -0.3%99%

+11 more outcomes

Total Vol

$942.2K

24h Vol

$154.3K

KALSHI

Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)

• Above 3.0%99%
• Above 3.1%99%
• Above 3.2%99%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

$1.1M

24h Vol

$75.3K

KALSHI

Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

• Above 2.1%99%
• Above 2.2%97%
• Above 2.3%-3.0pt81%

+12 more outcomes

Total Vol

$234K

24h Vol

KALSHI

Unemployment in October

• Above 3.7%99%
• Above 3.8%98%
• Above 3.9%+3.0pt98%

+11 more outcomes

Total Vol

$105.2K

24h Vol

$26.5K

KALSHI

Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)

• Above 3.1%98%
• Above 3.2%98%
• Above 3.0%97%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

$402.5K

24h Vol

$24.5K

KALSHI

CPI core in September

• Above 0.0%95%
• Above 0.1%+2.0pt80%
• Above 0.2%-5.0pt36%

+8 more outcomes

Total Vol

$318K

• CPI core in October
• Jobs numbers in October 2026?
• CPI in October
• Recession in 2027?
• US recession by end of 2026?
• CPI core in November 2026
• US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• Recession this year?
• Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
• Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
• Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)
• Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)