KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above -0.3% 98%+1.0ptLeader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5K
Liquidity
$10.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Feb 20, 26, 3:00 PM UTCOct 14, 26, 12:25 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.4% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026).
- Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency.
- In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.3% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.2% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $662.8K
- 24h Vol
- $55.1K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.9K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $21.3K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for CPI in September?
- Kalshi prices Above -0.3% at 98% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does CPI in September resolve?
- CPI in September is scheduled to resolve on October 14, 2026.
- How is CPI in September settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.4% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.