KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 0.5% (70%)
Resolved: Oct 14, 2026, 1:10 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 14, 2026, 12:12 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 0.4%91%
Above 0.5%70%
Above 0.6%17%
Above 0.8%1%
Above 0.3%Lost
Above 0.2%Lost
Above -0.4%Lost
Above 0.1%Lost
Above -0.3%Lost
Above -0.2%Lost
Above -0.1%Lost
Above 0.0%Lost
Above 0.4%Lost
Above 0.5%Won
Above 0.6%Lost
Above 0.7%Lost
Above 0.8%Lost
Above 0.9%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.4% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The market will always close at 8:29 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026).
- Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency.
- In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.3% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.2% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.