PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
≤1.9% 49.5%+1.6ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$416.4
Liquidity
$3.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
1
7d Change
+0.9 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jun 17, 26, 11:32 PMJan 22, 27, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
- The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027.
- Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
- For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change-4.0pt68.3%
- 25 bps increase+4.0pt30.7%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $43M
- 24h Vol
- $2.9M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+2.0pt51.5%
- No-2.0pt48.5%
- Total Vol
- $7.8M
- 24h Vol
- $75.3K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $124.3K
- 24h Vol
- $15.8K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting41%
- September Meeting+3.5pt30%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICPI-U index in August
- Above 334.30095%
- Above 334.35095%
- Above 334.450+3.0pt94%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $53.3K
- 24h Vol
KALSHICPI core in October
- Above 0.1%98%
- Above 0.2%98%
- Above 0.0%66%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.1K
- 24h Vol
- $7.6K
- How high will inflation get this year?
- US shelter CPI in August
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Annual
- PPI YoY - August 2026
- South Africa inflation rate MoM for August
- US electricity price in August
- Core PCE YoY - July 2026
- CPI in August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026?
- Polymarket prices ≤1.9% at 50% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026 resolve?
- Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 22, 2027.
- How is Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026 settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).