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Will the Citrini scenario happen?

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

2.0% (24h)InflationOne-OffEconomy Equities1y

KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibrated

Current implied probability

Yes

Yes 21%+2.0%

Market quality

56 / 100

Medium quality

24h Volume

$150.9

Liquidity

$171K

High liquidity

Bid / Ask

19.0% / 21.0%

Spread

10.5%

Wide spread

Market data

Updated 24 minutes ago

Feb 25, 26, 3:00 PMJul 1, 28, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Yes21%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release

occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Large trades

$1.0k26.0%

KALSHIYes17d ago

Volume trend

$151

Jul 225d of dataJul 26

Related Markets

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

Above 3.4%: 31%

US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Soft Landing: 62%

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Above 2.1%: 98%

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

Above 3.5%: 61%

If US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?

If US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?

NVIDIA (NVDA): 10.3%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Manifold Markets

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Active in these topics

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BNBBNB$571.12+0.97%

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Rules

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release

occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.