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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Inflation
  3. Will the Citrini scenario happen?
Will the Citrini scenario happen?

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

InflationOne-OffEconomyEquities2y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 29%
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$1.6

Liquidity

$2K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

29.0% / 30.0%

Spread

3.5%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Feb 25, 26, 3:00 PMJul 1, 28, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes29%

Rules

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release

Kalshi
  • occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$3.4
Overheating: 47%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

$2.6
Above 2.6%: 79%KalshiKALSHI
Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

$0.5
Above 2.4%: 67%KalshiKALSHI
CPI core in November 2026

CPI core in November 2026

$0
Above 0.0%: 0%KalshiKALSHI
How high will inflation get in 2026?

How high will inflation get in 2026?

$29.9K
Above 4%: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
June Inflation US - Annual

June Inflation US - Annual

$767.3
4.1%: 23%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,184.65+0.63%EthereumETH$1,641.35+0.02%SolanaSOL$64.31-1.30%DogecoinDOGE$0.084-0.89%XRPXRP$1.11-2.16%BNBBNB$592.54-0.01%

Related News

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Rules

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release

Kalshi
  • occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.