Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
InflationOne-OffEconomyEquitiesBusiness & CorporateSociety & Culture2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 58.9%
Forecasters
198
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Feb 14, 26, 5:26 PM UTCFeb 14, 29, 5:23 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander get divorced?
Manifold MarketsWill the Citrini scenario happen?
KalshiFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiRules
Freddie deBoer offered Scott Alexander the following wager (see https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager )
- Let's say that they did agree under those original conditions.
- Each one is very wide, but he only has to lose once.
- This resolves to YES if Freddie is right about ALL of these conditions.
- This resolves to NO if Freddie is wrong about AT LEAST ONE of these conditions.
- Bet Conditions (Predicting a “Normal Economy”)