KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 2.2% 97%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$310
Liquidity
$310
Low liquiditySpread
33.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 17, 26, 4:00 PM UTCJan 13, 27, 1:25 PM UTC
Trends
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiCore inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiJapan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
PolymarketJapan Core CPI YoY in 2026
PolymarketWill US core inflation be above UK core inflation in September?
KalshiPoland: Will CPI inflation in Poland exceed X% throughout 2026 (CPI YoY)?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.1% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.2% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.3% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.4% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.5% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
InflationKALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+1.0pt98%
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.3%98%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $306K
- 24h Vol
- $87.1K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.2%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $181.1K
- 24h Vol
- $39.3K
POLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+4.0pt83.2%
- No-4.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $38K
- 24h Vol
- $35.4K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)-3.5pt61.4%
- 1 (25 bps)-2.5pt18.8%
- 3 (75 bps)+4.5pt17.8%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Hike–Pause–Hike+5.0pt42.9%
- Hike–Hike–Pause+5.5pt23.5%
- Hike–Hike–Hike-3.5pt18.4%
+6 more outcomes
- Owners' equivalent rent for September 2026
- September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- CPI core in October
- Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)
- September Inflation US - Monthly
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
- Social Security COLA for 2028
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- September Inflation US - Annual
- CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?
- CPI month-over-month in Sep 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY)?
- Kalshi prices Above 2.2% at 97% as of September 18, 2026.
- When does Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY) resolve?
- Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY) is scheduled to resolve on January 13, 2027.
- How is Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.1% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.