KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 2.5% 98%Leader of 16 outcomes
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
29.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 11:15 PM UTCDec 10, 26, 1:25 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiCore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiInflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiWill November 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsJapan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
PolymarketJapan Core CPI YoY in 2026
PolymarketRules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.0% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.1% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.2% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.3% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.4% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase52.9%
- No change+2.0pt46.1%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $108M
- 24h Vol
- $3.5M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $710.5K
- 24h Vol
- $81.4K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt55%
- September Meeting45%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.4%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $425K
- 24h Vol
- $36.1K
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt88%
- Above 0.2%-2.0pt34%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.8K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+4.0pt74.3%
- No-4.0pt25.7%
- Total Vol
- $8.8M
- 24h Vol
- $8.6K
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- CPI in September
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- NYC median asking rent in December 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)?
- Kalshi prices Above 2.5% at 98% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY) resolve?
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY) is scheduled to resolve on December 10, 2026.
- How is Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.0% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.