KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Exactly 4.0% 8%+6.0ptLeader of 21 outcomes
Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$7.8K
Liquidity
$8.4K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 17, 26, 11:00 PM UTCJan 13, 27, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- If the CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly 2.6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly 2.7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly 2.8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly 2.9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
InflationKALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+1.0pt99%
- Above 3.3%98%
- Above 3.2%98%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $344.9K
- 24h Vol
- $38.9K
KALSHICPI core in September
- Above 0.0%98%
- Above 0.1%-1.0pt88%
- Above 0.2%-3.0pt41%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $47.9K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)-2.0pt60.6%
- 3 (75 bps)+2.6pt21.2%
- 1 (25 bps)-2.0pt17.2%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHISeptember 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%+5.0pt38%
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above-4.0pt37%
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.1% or below-5.0pt6%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHICPI in September
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $202.4K
- 24h Vol
- $21.2K
POLYMARKETFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Hike–Pause–Hike-5.5pt35.6%
- Hike–Hike–Pause+3.5pt26%
- Hike–Hike–Hike+4.5pt22.1%
+6 more outcomes
- How high will inflation get this year?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- NYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
- CPI in October
- I bond fixed rate in November 2026
- Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- September Inflation US - Annual
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for CPI year-over-year in Dec 2026?
- Kalshi prices Exactly 4.0% at 8% as of September 19, 2026.
- When does CPI year-over-year in Dec 2026 resolve?
- CPI year-over-year in Dec 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 13, 2027.
- How is CPI year-over-year in Dec 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.