KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
At least 4.5% 24%+2.6ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
53 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$40
Liquidity
$247.5K
High liquiditySpread
5.9 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jan 15, 26, 3:00 PM UTCFeb 14, 27, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 5.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 6.0% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 6.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 7.0% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.1K
- 24h Vol
- $41.4K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $644.9K
- 24h Vol
- $39.4K
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation China - Annual
- 0.7% - 0.8%+56.5pt100%
- ≤0.2%-0.5pt0%
- 0.3% - 0.4%-7.3pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI core in August
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- CPI-U index in August
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How high will inflation get this year??
- Kalshi prices At least 4.5% at 24% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does How high will inflation get this year? resolve?
- How high will inflation get this year? is scheduled to resolve on February 14, 2027.
- How is How high will inflation get this year? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is How high will inflation get this year? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.