KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAt least 4.5% 35%-21.0%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$952.7
Liquidity
$242.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
36.0% / 49.8%
Spread
38.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Jan 15, 26, 3:00 PMFeb 14, 27, 1:29 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
At least 4.5%35%
Compare venues· At least 4.0%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall82% match · verified | Medium | 100% | — | $6.3 | $44.8K | 6 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis pageMost active | Medium | 100% | — | $952.7 | $242.9K | 26 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
How high will inflation get in 2026?
0.5%5mo
+1.4%100%
+2.0%100%
+0.1%100%
+5 more outcomes
72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.3M
24h Vol$6.3
POLYMARKETRules
If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 5.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 6.0% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 6.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.9k60.0%KALSHIAt least 4.5% — No2d ago
KALSHIAt least 4.5% — No2d ago$1.0k40.0%KALSHIAt least 4.5% — Yes13d ago
KALSHIAt least 4.5% — Yes13d agoVolume trend
$953Jul 225d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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KALSHIActive in these topics
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If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 5.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 6.0% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 6.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.