Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
InflationOne-OffEconomyEquitiesBusiness & CorporateSociety & Culture2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 64%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCFeb 14, 29, 5:23 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander (ACX author) come to Austin and attend or host a public event in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Citrini scenario happen?
KalshiFed Decision in September?
PolymarketCPI in August
KalshiRules
Freddie deBoer offered Scott Alexander the following wager (see https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager )
- Let's say that they did agree under those original conditions.
- Each one is very wide, but he only has to lose once.
- This resolves to YES if Freddie is right about ALL of these conditions.
- This resolves to NO if Freddie is wrong about AT LEAST ONE of these conditions.
- Bet Conditions (Predicting a “Normal Economy”)
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52%
- No change-3.0pt46.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $103.9M
- 24h Vol
- $2.6M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $376.1K
- 24h Vol
- $29.3K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $607.7K
- 24h Vol
- $25.6K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-10.3pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+7.7pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.3pt3.1%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation US - Annual
- 3.4%+0.5pt42.1%
- 3.3%-2.0pt29.9%
- 3.5%-0.5pt13.1%
+9 more outcomes
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Egg prices up in August?
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander? resolve?
- Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander? is scheduled to resolve on February 14, 2029.
- How is Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Freddie deBoer offered Scott Alexander the following wager (see https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager )