Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 2:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 80%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 14, 26, 1:09 PM UTCJun 30, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- If at least 3 of:
- unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS);
- S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance;
- Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix;
- labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%;
