Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 14, 26, 1:09 PM UTCJun 30, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiFed Decision in September?
PolymarketCPI in August
KalshiRules
Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- If at least 3 of:
- unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS);
- S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance;
- Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix;
- labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%;
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417K
- 24h Vol
- $41.6K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $637.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.5K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.0pt51.9%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.6%
- 0.1%-3.0pt9.6%
+4 more outcomes
- CPI core in August
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Annual
- CPI-U index in August
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] resolve?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2028.
- How is Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- Where else is Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.