Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?
InflationOne-OffMacro & EconomyEconomyTrade PolicyEquitiesGeopolitics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.7%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleApr 3, 25, 11:45 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
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Manifold MarketsRules
In the first Great Depression, the stock market fell, leading to an initial crisis, and then the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 severely curtailed global trade both by instituting tariffs on US goods and inviting retaliatory tariffs from other countries.
- Similarly, in 2025, the stock market crashed, and then worldwide tariffs were imposed.
- However, whereas the 1930 trade war only increased tariffs to 20%, the weighted average United States tariffs in 2025 already falls between 25% and 30% (depending on source), even before the cycle of retaliatory tariffs has begun.
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any time before January 1, 2027, it is the consensus of largely unbiased mainstream sources like The New York Times, CNN, ABC, or CBS that the economy is or was in a "depression" after January 1, 2025.
- Use of the word "recession" is insufficient for YES.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
