Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.6%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Apr 3, 25, 3:56 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsBy end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a global wealth or income tax by 2035?
Manifold MarketsCore CPI in October
KalshiUS real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if global GDP decreases by 10% according to the following page or an equivalent release from the IMF: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
- The decrease does not have to happen over one year.
- Two years of 6% decreases in a row would resolve YES.
- The market resolves NO if there is a brief decrease which does not show up on the yearly data (for example, the 2020 recession would not qualify, even if it briefly caused 10% GDP decline).
- I believe the last historical example of a global depression was 1929-1932.
