PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
≥3.0% 30.9%+2.5ptLeader of 7 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$987.8
Liquidity
$9.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-3.5 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 31, 26, 9:42 PMOct 29, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
- Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate".
- The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market.
- Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — US GDP growth in Q3 2026 · More than 3.0% 44%
- Also available on Kalshi — US real GDP growth in Q3 2026? · Above 0.0% 96%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US GDP growth in Q3 2026??
- Polymarket prices ≥3.0% at 31% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does US GDP growth in Q3 2026? resolve?
- US GDP growth in Q3 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 29, 2026.
- How is US GDP growth in Q3 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
- Where else is US GDP growth in Q3 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Futuur, Kalshi.
