PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
0.8%–1.6% 29.5%+10.5ptLeader of 10 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
0.8%–1.6% 29.5%+10.5ptMarket quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.4K
Liquidity
$5K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-7.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 17, 26, 7:35 PM UTCNov 17, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
- The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent.
- Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.