PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 20%+0.0%
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$3.7K
Liquidity
$28.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
19.0% / 20.0%
Spread
5.3%
Moderate spread7d Change
+1.0%
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 29, 25, 10:29 PMJan 31, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
Yes20%
Also available on Limitless
US recession by end of 2026?
7mo
19.5%
80.5%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$3.3K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".