Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.6%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 6, 26, 6:59 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsReal GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026
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Manifold MarketsUS real GDP growth in 2030?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in 2034?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "YES" if Mexico's real GDP growth for the full calendar year 2026 is reported as 1.6% or greater by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI).
- Otherwise, it resolves to "NO."
- The resolution will be based on the official final or revised annual GDP data published by INEGI (https://www.inegi.org.mx/).
- If the official annual report is not available by November 1, 2027, the market will resolve based on the most recent, reputable data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the World Bank.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt63.4%
- No change-9.0pt35.6%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $112.2M
- 24h Vol
- $6.3M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $772.5K
- 24h Vol
- $109.2K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $449.8K
- 24h Vol
- $31.7K
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $34.1K
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt49.5%
- Overheating+13.7pt45.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $94.6K
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026? resolve?
- Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria