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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Economy
  3. Recession this year?
Recession this year?

Recession this year?

1.0% (24h)EconomyOne-Off7mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 19%+1.0%
Market quality

60 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$77.2

Liquidity

$8.9K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

18.0% / 19.0%

Spread

5.6%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Jul 14, 25, 2:00 PMJan 31, 27, 1:25 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes19%

Rules

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
  • The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,663.61+1.88%EthereumETH$1,652.22+1.30%SolanaSOL$65.11+0.89%

Related Markets

Recession in 2027?

Recession in 2027?

$0.4
Yes: 46%KalshiKALSHI
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

$3.1K
Yes: 20%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

$915
5.0%: 17%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

$300
Yes: 27.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
June Unemployment Rate

June Unemployment Rate

$155.3
4.4%: 35%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US real GDP growth in 2030?

US real GDP growth in 2030?

$154.8
2.6% to 3.0%: 11%KalshiKALSHI

Active in these topics

DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.11%XRPXRP$1.12-0.32%BNBBNB$595.32+1.32%CardanoADA$0.1663+2.17%HyperliquidHYPE$54.83-2.25%LitecoinLTC$42.80+0.31%

Rules

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
  • The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.