KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 10%-2.0%
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.7K
Liquidity
$809K
High liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 11.0%
Spread
10.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jul 14, 25, 2:00 PMJan 31, 27, 1:25 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes10%
Volume trend
$3.7kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Rules
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.