US recession in 2026?

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for US recession in 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 95.3% as of October 25, 2026.

When does US recession in 2026? resolve?

US recession in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

How is US recession in 2026? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if there are two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth in the United States from Q1 2026 to Q4 2026 inclusive, according to advance estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Where else is US recession in 2026? listed?

The same question is also listed on Futuur, Limitless, Polymarket.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

KALSHI

Recession this year?

• No95.5%
• Yes+1.0pt4.5%

Total Vol

$3.8M

24h Vol

$38.1K

POLYMARKET

US recession by end of 2026?

• No+0.5pt92.1%
• Yes-0.5pt7.9%

Total Vol

$2.4M

24h Vol

$22.2K

KALSHI

October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

• U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k16%
• U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k+11.0pt10.5%
• U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above5%

KALSHI

Unemployment in October

• Above 3.8%98.5%
• Above 3.7%99.5%
• Above 3.9%98%

KALSHI

Recession in 2027?

• No79.5%
• Yes+1.0pt20.5%

Total Vol

$749.5K

24h Vol

$12.3K

KALSHI

South Africa unemployment rate in Q3

• Above 31.0%-6.0pt95%
• Above 31.5%-4.0pt94%
• Above 32.0%+12.0pt88%

• Mexico unemployment rate in October
• CPI in October
• US economic state at the end of 2026?
• Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
• Core CPI YoY in December
• CPI in December
• US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?
• CPI YoY in December
• US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026
• Unemployment in November