US recession in 2026?

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for US recession in 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 94.8% as of October 28, 2026.

When does US recession in 2026? resolve?

US recession in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

How is US recession in 2026? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if there are two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth in the United States from Q1 2026 to Q4 2026 inclusive, according to advance estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Where else is US recession in 2026? listed?

The same question is also listed on Futuur, Limitless, Polymarket.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

KALSHI

Russia unemployment rate in September

• Above 1.9%+16.0pt77%
• Above 2.0%+10.0pt69.5%
• Above 2.1%+9.0pt78%

+4 more outcomes

Total Vol

$83K

24h Vol

$71.3K

KALSHI

Core CPI in October

• Above 0.0%-1.0pt94.5%
• Above 0.1%+1.0pt75.5%
• Above 0.2%+5.0pt44.5%

KALSHI

US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?

• Above 1.0%98.5%
• Above 0.0%99%
• Above 0.5%99.5%

KALSHI

Unemployment in October

• Above 3.7%99%
• Above 3.8%98.5%
• Above 3.9%97.5%

KALSHI

CPI in October

• Above -0.1%+1.0pt98.5%
• Above 0.0%99%
• Above 0.1%89.5%

KALSHI

CPI YoY in November

• Above 3.0%+1.0pt98.5%
• Above 3.3%+1.0pt97.5%
• Above 3.1%98.5%

• US recession by end of 2026?
• Recession in 2027?
• Core CPI YoY in December
• China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?
• US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• CPI in November
• Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
• How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
• US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026
• Core CPI in November
• Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)