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Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 9:27 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Q2 2025 3%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$179.3K
High liquiditySpread
2.7 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Mar 19, 25, 2:00 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:NBER
- Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight).
- For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the next US recession start??
- Kalshi prices Q2 2025 at 3% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does When will the next US recession start? resolve?
- When will the next US recession start? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is When will the next US recession start? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.