KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityQ1 2026 3%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0.1
Liquidity
$1.8K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
3.3% / 7.8%
Spread
136.4%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Aug 16, 25, 5:30 PMDec 31, 26, 3:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
Selected outcome
Q1 20263%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
US recession by end of 2026?
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US real GDP growth in 2030?
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Rules
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight).
- For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
- If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q2 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q3 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.