KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityQ4 2024 1%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$179.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.3% / 51.0%
Spread
16900.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Mar 19, 25, 2:00 PMDec 31, 26, 3:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Q4 20241%
Volume trend
$222Jul 219d of dataJul 23
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
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MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Rules
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight).
- For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
- If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q2 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q3 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.