Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.7%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 9, 23, 12:21 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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KalshiRules
Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/2621/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.
- This question asks: *In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?*
- For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt53%
- No change-2.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.1K
- 24h Vol
- $41.4K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $644.9K
- 24h Vol
- $39.4K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Total Vol
- $366K
- 24h Vol
- $12.7K
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $88.4K
- 24h Vol
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US recession by end of 2026?
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for [Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does [Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030? resolve?
- [Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is [Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?