Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 21, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 16.3%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 days ago
StaleNov 9, 23, 12:21 AMJan 2, 30, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes16%
Volume trend
$450Jul 202d of dataJul 21
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
$10.1KAbove 3.4%: 29%
KALSHI
KALSHI
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
$4.4K0-1%: 56%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Recession this year?
$3.5KYes: 11%KALSHI
KALSHI
2026: Trump's dream year?
$2KYes: 5%KALSHI
KALSHI
US economic state at the end of 2026?
$1.8KSoft Landing: 62%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US recession by end of 2026?
$382.1Yes: 12%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Rules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.