Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.9%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleNov 14, 23, 2:24 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
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PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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PolymarketRules
Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19767/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, reporting from credible sources indicates that a United States aircraft carrier has been sunk, destroyed, or damaged such that it must be decommissioned due to enemy military action.
- This question pertains to the carrier vehicle (CVs) class, NOT helicopter carriers (such as LHD's).
- Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Open markets
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- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
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- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for [Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does [Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030? resolve?
- [Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is [Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?