PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 8%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$89.6K
Liquidity
$661.6K
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
514
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Mar 14, 26, 12:25 AMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by the named outcome, 2026 11:59PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
- Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
- An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
- If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
