Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
0.1 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East22d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 30 3%-0.1ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$90
Liquidity
$13.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.4 pt
Moderate spreadComments
2
7d Change
+1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 21, 26, 1:15 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
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MyriadRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
- Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
- An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
- If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.