When will Israel next strike Iranian territory? (window closes Nov 30, 2026)
One-OffMiddle EastGeopoliticsPolitics1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo strike before December 1, 2026 41.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
1
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+16.5 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleOct 21, 26, 7:52 AM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
When will Israel next strike Iranian territory? The window opens when this market is created and ends on November 30, 2026 at 23:59 UTC.
- What counts as a strike: an Israeli military attack (aircraft, missile, drone or special forces) that hits a target inside Iran's internationally recognized territory.
- That covers Iranian land, territorial waters and airspace (for example, shooting down an aircraft over Iran).
- Joint US–Israeli strikes count.
- All of the following count only if the Israeli government or IDF officially acknowledges the strike, or at least two of Reuters, AP and BBC attribute it to Israel:
- covert sabotage
