PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 30%+1.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$57K
Liquidity
$179.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.6% / 4.8%
Spread
4.3%
Moderate spread7d Change
+0.5%
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Mar 9, 26, 2:59 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Selected outcome
December 3130%
Also available on Manifold Markets
Iran leadership change by...?
6mo
0%
0%
0%
+7 more outcomes
Community forecast28 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$13K
24h Vol$196.7
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.