PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
June 30, 2027 29%+2.5ptLeader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$43.7K
Liquidity
$586.2K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
1,094
7d Change
+3.5 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Mar 9, 26, 2:58 AM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Iran leadership change by which date?
Manifold MarketsWill Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Iran leadership change by...? · December 31 23%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Iran leadership change by...? · Dec 31 14%
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $423K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $285.8K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Iran leadership change by which date??
- Polymarket prices June 30, 2027 at 29% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Iran leadership change by which date? resolve?
- Iran leadership change by which date? is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.
- How is Iran leadership change by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Where else is Iran leadership change by which date? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Futuur, Manifold Markets.