PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityJune 30, 2027 39%-1.5%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$251.2K
Liquidity
$348.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.9% / 2.0%
Spread
5.3%
Moderate spread7d Change
-3.6%
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Mar 9, 26, 2:58 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
June 30, 202739%
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Futuur
Iran leadership change by which date?
5mo
30%
5%
4%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$404
24h Vol$0
FUTUUR
Also available on Manifold Markets
Iran leadership change by which date?
5mo
-1.7%22.3%
12.3%
9.8%
+7 more outcomes
Community forecast29 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$4.1k93.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by August 31? — NoMrNoItAll3h ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by August 31? — NoMrNoItAll3h ago$10.0k98.5%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nosharrdio20h ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nosharrdio20h ago$1.5k96.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nononkenny902d ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nononkenny902d ago$2.9k73.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by December 31? — NoFATMAN2d ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by December 31? — NoFATMAN2d ago$4.9k93.3%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoScottyNooo4d ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoScottyNooo4d ago$2.2k94.9%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoRizzEmWithTheTism6d ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoRizzEmWithTheTism6d ago$6.3k96.4%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoStudentMoney10d ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoStudentMoney10d ago$1.5k73.6%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by June 30, 2027? — NoStarMaster14d ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by June 30, 2027? — NoStarMaster14d agoVolume trend
$251.2kJul 225d of dataJul 26
Related Markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
$2.6MJuly 18: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
$846KAugust 31: 60%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
$582KYes: 16%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
$278.6KBefore Sep 1, 2026: 11%
KALSHI
KALSHI
What will Benjamin Netanyahu say during Sunday Morning Futures?
$117.3KEvent does not qualify: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)
$41.2KAbove 60: 7%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot jumps to 46% to lead Israel PM raceBlockchain.News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.NewsPolymarket sees 55.5% odds for Iran blockade end by Aug. 31 after Trump jabBlockchain.News
US freezes $131M in Iran-linked crypto as Middle East tensions riseCointelegraphRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.