Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?
One-OffElectionMiddle EastGeopoliticsPolitics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.6%
Forecasters
56
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 42 minutes ago
Dec 10, 24, 2:44 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Iran leadership change by which date?
Manifold MarketsIran leadership change by which date?
FutuurIsrael military action against Syria by which date?
PolymarketHouthis target Syria by which date?
PolymarketIsrael and Syria normalize relations by which date?
PolymarketAhmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Syria underwent regime change on Dec 8th, 2024, when rebel forces took the capital, Damascus.
- The former Syrian Prime Minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, has been appointed the head of the caretaker government during a transition period.
- al-Jalali called for free elections to be held, in which the Syrian people can choose who they want to lead their country.
- Will Syria hold such elections, before the end of 2026?
- This market will resolve YES on a free election that elects a head of government or head of state, or members of a legislature that chooses (or the leading coalition of which chooses) a head of government or head of state, from its members or otherwise, or an election that elects electors to elect a head of government or head of state, or any other system through which it can be reasonably said for the people to have freely elected a head of government or head of state.
- If the election is a sham, or if the leadership positions are merely symbolic and true power remains with an unelected leader, that won't be sufficient for a YES resolution.
