Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?
One-OffElectionMiddle EastGeopoliticsPolitics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.7%
Forecasters
54
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleDec 10, 24, 2:44 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Syria underwent regime change on Dec 8th, 2024, when rebel forces took the capital, Damascus.
- The former Syrian Prime Minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, has been appointed the head of the caretaker government during a transition period.
- al-Jalali called for free elections to be held, in which the Syrian people can choose who they want to lead their country.
- Will Syria hold such elections, before the end of 2026?
- This market will resolve YES on a free election that elects a head of government or head of state, or members of a legislature that chooses (or the leading coalition of which chooses) a head of government or head of state, from its members or otherwise, or an election that elects electors to elect a head of government or head of state, or any other system through which it can be reasonably said for the people to have freely elected a head of government or head of state.
- If the election is a sham, or if the leadership positions are merely symbolic and true power remains with an unelected leader, that won't be sufficient for a YES resolution.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Syria underwent regime change on Dec 8th, 2024, when rebel forces took the capital, Damascus.