Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastDec 31 13%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
31
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 10, 26, 1:01 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:58 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Iran leadership change by which date?
PolymarketWill Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Iran leadership change by...? · December 31 20%
- Also available on Polymarket — Iran leadership change by...? · June 30, 2027 26%
