Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 16, 2026, 8:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastMarch 13 0%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
29
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 days ago
StaleMar 10, 26, 1:01 AMJan 1, 27, 12:58 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
June 301%
Compare venues· Dec 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
Iran leadership change by which date?
1.1%5mo
-1.5%39%
-3.0%23%
12%
+7 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$20.9M
24h Vol$226.8K
POLYMARKET
Also available on Futuur
Iran leadership change by which date?
5mo
30%
5%
4%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$404
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$4.1k93.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by August 31? — NoMrNoItAll7h ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by August 31? — NoMrNoItAll7h ago$10.0k98.5%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nosharrdio23h ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nosharrdio23h ago$1.5k96.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nononkenny902d ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nononkenny902d ago$2.9k73.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by December 31? — NoFATMAN2d ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by December 31? — NoFATMAN2d ago$4.9k93.3%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoScottyNooo4d ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoScottyNooo4d ago$2.2k94.9%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoRizzEmWithTheTism6d ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoRizzEmWithTheTism6d ago$6.3k96.4%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoStudentMoney10d ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoStudentMoney10d ago$1.5k73.6%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by June 30, 2027? — NoStarMaster14d ago
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by June 30, 2027? — NoStarMaster14d agoVolume trend
$18Jul 88d of dataJul 16
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Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.