Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDec 31 14%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
31
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Mar 10, 26, 1:01 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:58 AM UTC
Trends
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0%
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Iran leadership change by which date?
PolymarketWill Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan during the leadership of the person in power after Xi Jinping?
Manifold MarketsWas the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Iran leadership change by...? · December 31 23%
- Also available on Polymarket — Iran leadership change by...? · June 30, 2027 28%
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+10.5pt66%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $581.9K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $11.2M
- 24h Vol
- $309.5K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt50.4%
- October 31-3.0pt27.8%
- September 30+1.0pt12.2%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65.3M
- 24h Vol
- $221.7K
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+5.5pt22%
- October 31+9.0pt18%
- September 30+3.9pt7%
+9 more outcomes
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Iran leadership change by which date??
- Manifold Markets prices Dec 31 at 14% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Iran leadership change by which date? resolve?
- Iran leadership change by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Iran leadership change by which date? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Where else is Iran leadership change by which date? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Futuur, Polymarket.