KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityBefore Jul 1, 2026 0%-0.1%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$322.6K
Liquidity
$9M
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.3% / 0.4%
Spread
33.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Mar 17, 26, 2:00 PMJul 7, 26, 1:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Jul 15, 20265%
Also available on Manifold Markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...
6mo
0.9%
0.9%
37%
+3 more outcomes
Community forecast20 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$1.5K
24h Vol$83.9
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before June 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before June 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.