KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jul 1, 2027 47%+2.0ptLeader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$274.6K
Liquidity
$9.2M
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Apr 14, 26, 12:00 AMSep 1, 26, 1:59 PM
Trends
0%
Rules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before June 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before August 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before September 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ... · 6. Never in 2026 99%
Open markets
Middle East
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.8pt66%
- October 31-9.0pt41%
- September 30-3.0pt26%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $18M
- 24h Vol
- $401K
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 31-3.0pt8%
- November 30-2.0pt6%
- October 31-1.0pt4%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt36.7%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt22.4%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt11.2%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- August 22+1.1pt98%
- August 2595%
- August 31-0.5pt86%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by which date?
- August 310%
- August 150%
- Total Vol
- $22.7M
- 24h Vol
- $118.3K
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No83.2%
- Yes16.8%
- Total Vol
- $59.2M
- 24h Vol
- $96.3K
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
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- Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will Iran target a Arab country on?
- Al Faisaly Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC - More Markets
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal??
- Kalshi prices Before Jul 1, 2027 at 47% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? resolve?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? is scheduled to resolve on September 1, 2026.
- How is When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before June 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.