PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 28, 2026, 10:27 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 · —
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Stored reference
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 89%Leader of 7 outcomes
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 89%Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.7K
Liquidity
$203.4K
High liquidityOpen interest
$27.1K
Bid / Ask
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No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026Spread
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Comments
2
Market data
Updated 56 minutes ago
LaggingJul 8, 26, 6:53 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
AugustLost
JulyLost
SeptemberLost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before January 1, 2027?
ForecastExWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before November 1, 2026? (Shipping) (Oil tankers)?
ForecastExStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
- If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “the named outcome.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.