PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 45%-4.0%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$13.9K
Liquidity
$208.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
44.0% / 45.0%
Spread
2.3%
Tight spread7d Change
-5.5%
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 6:53 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
No Return to Normal Traffic in 202645%
Volume trend
$13.9kJul 819d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
- If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.