Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast6. Never in 2026 99%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
24
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleApr 5, 26, 8:43 PMJan 1, 27, 12:59 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and the corresponding date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? · Before Jul 1, 2027 47%
Open markets
Middle East
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.8pt66%
- October 31-9.0pt41%
- September 30-3.0pt26%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $18M
- 24h Vol
- $401K
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 31-3.0pt8%
- November 30-2.0pt6%
- October 31-1.0pt4%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jul 1, 2027+2.0pt47%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-2.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2027-4.0pt24%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt36.7%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt22.4%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt11.2%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- August 22+1.1pt98%
- August 2595%
- August 31-0.5pt86%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by which date?
- August 310%
- August 150%
- Total Vol
- $22.7M
- 24h Vol
- $118.3K
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Al-Riyadh vs Al Nassr
- Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will Iran target a Arab country on?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...?
- Manifold Markets prices 6. Never in 2026 at 99% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ... resolve?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ... is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ... settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and the corresponding date.
- Where else is Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ... listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.